2016 4a Final Four predictions

[DanvilleSportsHead]

Ladies and Gents, football season is right around the corner and I know everyone is ready for some football! Last year we had a preseason final 4 prediction and it was pretty easy with JF, Salem, LT, Courtland, etc being favorites.. This year, 4a West is an unknown with Salem being the undesputed favorite. 4a East will be very good as usual with Lake Taylor, Dinwiddie, Monacan, Chancellor, Lafeyette, and Courtland all battling to get to William and Mary. So without further due, let the speculation begin..

4a West Semi's
Salem 42 GW Danville 24
Amherst County 35 Sherando 28
4a West Final
Salem 35 Amherst County 24

4a East Semi's
Lake Taylor 42 Monacan 14
Dinwiddie 49 Lafeyette 28
4a East Final
Lake Taylor 27 Dinwiddie 28 OT

4a State Championship
Dinwiddie 41 Salem 35 (Dinwiddie scores with no time left.. Instant classic.. Salem offense sets state championship record with yards in a single game).

 

[BleedingNavy]

I am not sure Dinwiddie's defense can get back to final, but Danville you may be right on the final if a Salem vs. Dinwiddie matchup comes to pass. The Generals usually doba good job of defending power I or pro set teams. For Salem to set a record they would have to pass and thats the strength of the DHS D.

I think Salem, Amherst, GW and Sherando are nice picks. Salem wins the West.

LT, Chancellor, Dinwiddie and Lafeyette look good, but Hanover could sneak in. Cheatham is just that good. LT is my favorite to win the East. The East could truly be won by the luck of the draw/seedings. Conflicting styles and the right matchups are the key to moving on.

LT rebounds to win it all. When their quarterbacks are second year starters they usually win it all. Yes, they lost some good players, but I never count them out. They will learn from their mistakes in the final and will have a chip on their shoulders. 20-17.

 

[DanvilleSportsHead]

I am not sure Dinwiddie's defense can get back to final, but Danville you may be right on the final if a Salem vs. Dinwiddie matchup comes to pass. The Generals usually doba good job of defending power I or pro set teams. For Salem to set a record they would have to pass and thats the strength of the DHS D.

I think Salem, Amherst, GW and Sherando are nice picks. Salem wins the West.

LT, Chancellor, Dinwiddie and Lafeyette look good, but Hanover could sneak in. Cheatham is just that good. LT is my favorite to win the East. The East could truly be won by the luck of the draw/seedings. Conflicting styles and the right matchups are the key to moving on.

LT rebounds to win it all. When their quarterbacks are second year starters they usually win it all. Yes, they lost some good players, but I never count them out. They will learn from their mistakes in the final and will have a chip on their shoulders. 20-17.

Hanover is definitely a team to watch. They will be battle tested.. They play Dinwiddie, HS, Varina, Henrico, PH Ashland, and Atlee.. A 7-3 Hanover team will as dangerous as an undefeated/ 1 loss team. We will be in for a treat when Hanover gets Dinwiddie in week 2.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

No doubt, Hanover needs to be in everyone's conversations. Also the Jim Henderson coached Monacan Chiefs. Take them for granted and you will go home with your tail between your legs, saying "what happened".

Some outliers that I wouldn't be surprised to make a little splash, maybe not final four, but win some playoff games are: Courtland, Grafton, Smithfield, King George, Eastern View, and maybe Kings Fork, (Strictly speaking east here). I don't agree with Navy on Chancellor being significantly involved in the playoff chase.

DSH is absolutely correct about Hanover's schedule. They could easily end the regular season with a 7-3 even a 6-4 record and still be considered a team that can win it all. They just "HAVE" to keep Clayton healthy. 50 carries a game and the boy will be so battered and bruised he will not perform at his capacity. He is tough, no question about that. But the laws of physics and physiology can't be altered.

I will also mention three other teams that I think may see at least one playoff game. Churchland, Heritage (NN of course), and Powhatan.

 

[shauntclair]

It's Chancellor guys. The West will reman Salem. Who can challenge them? The East will get a big Charger surprise.

No undefeated team here. They don't play a row of wussy's in the regular season. But barring injury, they will be a force come playoff time. This is a group that started 8 Freshman 3 years ago. All Seniors now. They have 4 DI's and a Junior Dual threat QB that can sling the snot out of it. A great Coach and great program that made a hard choice to go young years ago. That choice comes to fruition this year.

Not predicting any victory here but they will be a major force and on a roll in December. This is the team to watch. IMO.

 

[DanvilleSportsHead]

DP, I don't know what it is about this Monacan Athletic Program. Girls basketball team was probably one of the best I've ever seen and the boys sent highly favored GW Danville home at the buzzer in the state semi final and then beat LT in the basketball state championship this past March. What their football team has done in the past couple years speaks for itsself. It's amazing what they're doing over there.

 

[tommythecpa]

DP, I don't know what it us about this Monacan Athletic Program. Girls basketball team was probably one of the best I've ever seen and the boys sent highly favored GW Danville home at the buzzer and then beat LT in the basketball state championship this past March. What their football team has done in the past couple years speaks for itsself. It's amazing what they're doing over there.

I live a third of a mile from Monacan and served on the PTA board, Never saw them play anything until they played GW in March.

 

[BleedingNavy]

I live a third of a mile from Monacan and served on the PTA board, Never saw them play anything until they played GW in March.

What are you trying to say?

 

[DinwiddieProud]

I don't get it either. Absolutely no accusation of any wrong doing, not my/our point. In the last few years they have found a boat load of athletes. I'll give the nod to Jim Henderson for the football program success, but man, where the heck did the basketball success come from? Just awesome. But hey, good for them! Make hay while the sun shines.

 

[ClarkeFan83]

Make hay while the sun shines.

You sure you're only 62?

 

[DinwiddieProud]

You sure you're only 62?

I'm country, what can I say!

 

[Tony D. Tiger]

Looks good for central VA football. Hopefully Amherst will make it as far as you predict, or farther. GW seems to always be knocking on the door but can't seem to put it all together when it counts. Maybe this is their year. Where is JF on the list?

 

[wikki]

Looks good for central VA football. Hopefully Amherst will make it as far as you predict, or farther. GW seems to always be knocking on the door but can't seem to put it all together when it counts. Maybe this is their year. Where is JF on the list?

I hope Amherst makes it as well and I would have doubted it but since the state game has been moved away from LU, they probably will just because I wanted them to play there again. But will be wherever they are of course. Love my Lancers

 

[DanvilleSportsHead]

Looks good for central VA football. Hopefully Amherst will make it as far as you predict, or farther. GW seems to always be knocking on the door but can't seem to put it all together when it counts. Maybe this is their year. Where is JF on the list?

GW seems to have their best years ahead of them. Very young this year and they'll go 10-0/9-1 but they won't have but 2 legitimate challenges all season. Don't see them beating a team like Salem or Amherst this year, but I could be wrong. Honestly, they could very well win it all in 2017 as they'll have 25+ seniors and a 3 year starter at QB. JF will be just fine. Don't think they'll have the same success they've had the past 2 seasons, but they have a wonderful coach, who develops players and most importantly, that program has developed a winning attitude. Anywhere from 10-0 to 7-3 is where the Cavs will be.. Very solid SOS. Anytime you lose a Navy Jones and/or Miller-Trent and play a schedule as challenging as JF plays, you're going to have to take a couple of bumps in the loss column. JF has one hell of a program. Amherst and Salem are definitely the 2 elite teams in the area this year.

 

[shauntclair]

GW seems to have their best years ahead of them. Very young this year and they'll go 10-0/9-1 but they won't have but 2 legitimate challenges all season. Don't see them beating a team like Salem or Amherst this year, but I could be wrong. Honestly, they could very well win it all in 2017 as they'll have 25+ seniors and a 3 year starter at QB. JF will be just fine. Don't think they'll have the same success they've had the past 2 seasons, but they have a wonderful coach, who develops players and most importantly, that program has developed a winning attitude. Anywhere from 10-0 to 7-3 is where the Cavs will be.. Very solid SOS. Anytime you lose a Navy Jones and/or Miller-Trent and play a schedule as challenging as JF plays, you're going to have to take a couple of bumps in the loss column. JF has one hell of a program. Amherst and Salem are definitely the 2 elite teams in the area this year.

I don't know if Amherst is elite this year but I think they'll be good. I actually think the schedule they have had for the last few years have hurt them. They have traveled a much harder road than a GW or a Salem. But I hope it pays off for them this season.

JF should be strong. They lose a lot but when you see that College level weight room and knowing how good Christmas is, you gotta' believe they'll be right back in the mix. No more than a small step back for these guys.

You gotta' go programs here. Salem is the obvious #1 in the West. GW cruises to #2. Doesn't mean they're all that but it's hard to see them with more than a single loss based on SOS. They play no more than 1 or 2 with an above .500 record.

But in the west, I see top 4 as Salem, GW, JF and Sherando. Not in that order but Salem easily #1. The East is better but, as Salem proved last year, anything is possible.

 

[DanvilleSportsHead]

I don't know if Amherst is elite this year but I think they'll be good. I actually think the schedule they have had for the last few years have hurt them. They have traveled a much harder road than a GW or a Salem. But I hope it pays off for them this season.

JF should be strong. They lose a lot but when you see that College level weight room and knowing how good Christmas is, you gotta' believe they'll be right back in the mix. No more than a small step back for these guys.

You gotta' go programs here. Salem is the obvious #1 in the West. GW cruises to #2. Doesn't mean they're all that but it's hard to see them with more than a single loss based on SOS. They play no more than 1 or 2 with an above .500 record.

But in the west, I see top 4 as Salem, GW, JF and Sherando. Not in that order but Salem easily #1. The East is better but, as Salem proved last year, anything is possible.

I think we also see a Woodgroove or Champe in the mix. If I had to guess the seedinfs today, I'd think Salem gets #1, Amherst #2, Sherando #3, with GW or Pulaski County coming in at 4 and 5, either team at any of the 2 seeds. I see the NoVA schools beating each other up and falling in line after the 5th seed. GW won't be the GW team of the past 2 years. This will be a collar team with no player having any offers and they will run the ball a lot more than they've had. The Vance game in Charlotte will determine a lot. It's almost a must win as Vance plays in one of the toughest conferences in the state of NC. I see this Vance team losing at least 3-5 games so GW needs the points if they're going to be a top 4 seed. I also see Patrick County winning 2-3 more games, EC Glass & Franklin County will be improved and Tunstall should help GW out as well as far as points goes. Pulaski will be a sleeper. They bring back a lot and I wouldn't be surprised to see them grab a top spot. Hunter Thomas is going to have a big year at RB and I think he leads them to another 9 win season.

 

[shauntclair]

I think we also see a Woodgroove or Champe in the mix. If I had to guess the seedinfs today, I'd think Salem gets #1, Amherst #2, Sherando #3, with GW or Pulaski County coming in at 4 and 5, either team at any of the 2 seeds. I see the NoVA schools beating each other up and falling in line after the 5th seed. GW won't be the GW team of the past 2 years. This will be a collar team with no player having any offers and they will run the ball a lot more than they've had. The Vance game in Charlotte will determine a lot. It's almost a must win as Vance plays in one of the toughest conferences in the state of NC. I see this Vance team losing at least 3-5 games so GW needs the points if they're going to be a top 4 seed. I also see Patrick County winning 2-3 more games, EC Glass & Franklin County will be improved and Tunstall should help GW out as well as far as points goes. Pulaski will be a sleeper. They bring back a lot and I wouldn't be surprised to see them grab a top spot. Hunter Thomas is going to have a big year at RB and I think he leads them to another 9 win season.

I'm right in line with that. The NOvA teams may actually be the strongest with Champe and Woodgrove but the schedule isn't going to allow them a high top 10 West.

East teams have the same issue. Lafayette can be one of the top seeds there with the schedule but the hopes are almost always false. Who you play is what tells who you are.

Good thing about all these potential ratings and talk is that the playoffs tell all and the best team does come out on top. I don't think I can remember any State Champion that did not earn or deserve it.

GL to GW this season. Solid program. Good Coach and slingin' it. They will be fun to watch.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

I think we also see a Woodgroove or Champe in the mix. If I had to guess the seedinfs today, I'd think Salem gets #1, Amherst #2, Sherando #3, with GW or Pulaski County coming in at 4 and 5, either team at any of the 2 seeds. I see the NoVA schools beating each other up and falling in line after the 5th seed. GW won't be the GW team of the past 2 years. This will be a collar team with no player having any offers and they will run the ball a lot more than they've had. The Vance game in Charlotte will determine a lot. It's almost a must win as Vance plays in one of the toughest conferences in the state of NC. I see this Vance team losing at least 3-5 games so GW needs the points if they're going to be a top 4 seed. I also see Patrick County winning 2-3 more games, EC Glass & Franklin County will be improved and Tunstall should help GW out as well as far as points goes. Pulaski will be a sleeper. They bring back a lot and I wouldn't be surprised to see them grab a top spot. Hunter Thomas is going to have a big year at RB and I think he leads them to another 9 win season.

What do you think of Millbrook, Liberty(Bealton), and Charlottesville?

From what OneMan has shared, the Black Knights should be improved. They have some talented young men, and I believe they are much more focused than in the past.

What's your take on these three.

When will you be moving back to the River City? We have a job coming up at the James Center in the next month or two. It will stretch on for several weeks. Hopefully we can catch lunch one day?

 

[shauntclair]

What do you think of Millbrook, Liberty(Bealton), and Charlottesville?

From what OneMan has shared, the Black Knights should be improved. They have some talented young men, and I believe they are much more focused than in the past.

What's your take on these three.

When will you be moving back to the River City? We have a job coming up at the James Center in the next month or two. It will stretch on for several weeks. Hopefully we can catch lunch one day?

History Says the Black Knights are out or consideration. No disrespect. I love OneMans posts. But it is what it is.

 

[DanvilleSportsHead]

What do you think of Millbrook, Liberty(Bealton), and Charlottesville?

From what OneMan has shared, the Black Knights should be improved. They have some talented young men, and I believe they are much more focused than in the past.

What's your take on these three.

When will you be moving back to the River City? We have a job coming up at the James Center in the next month or two. It will stretch on for several weeks. Hopefully we can catch lunch one day?

I think Millbrook will make it( I would love to hear what Hammy thinks about them).. RB Kier will be back and should have a great year. I'd put them anywhere from a 8th-12th seed. Charlottesville will definitely be in the mix. They had a very young team last year and were in so many close ball games. The Jefferson will be improved as Charlottesville, Louisa, Albemarle, Orange, Monticello and of course Western, will all be in playoff contention for their respective class. The Black Knights should sneak in! Our friend OC Boy told us that he doesn't think Bealeton will be competitive this year. 4-6, maybe 5-5 at best. They have a good program up there. From what I heard by some GW players, they had a few hosses!! And I'll be back on the 29th! That sounds like a plan! Hopefully me, you and Clarke can meet up! I can't wait to get back to RVA!!!!!!

 

[SpartanOfYore]

I think we also see a Woodgroove or Champe in the mix. If I had to guess the seedinfs today, I'd think Salem gets #1, Amherst #2, Sherando #3, with GW or Pulaski County coming in at 4 and 5, either team at any of the 2 seeds. I see the NoVA schools beating each other up and falling in line after the 5th seed. GW won't be the GW team of the past 2 years. This will be a collar team with no player having any offers and they will run the ball a lot more than they've had. The Vance game in Charlotte will determine a lot. It's almost a must win as Vance plays in one of the toughest conferences in the state of NC. I see this Vance team losing at least 3-5 games so GW needs the points if they're going to be a top 4 seed. I also see Patrick County winning 2-3 more games, EC Glass & Franklin County will be improved and Tunstall should help GW out as well as far as points goes. Pulaski will be a sleeper. They bring back a lot and I wouldn't be surprised to see them grab a top spot. Hunter Thomas is going to have a big year at RB and I think he leads them to another 9 win season.

Concerning playoff seedings, being the best team doesn't necessarily correlate to getting the number one seed. Last year showed us that. Salem was three touchdowns clear of everyone else in the West, yet did well just to hold on to the third seed. With the VHSL's ratings scale formula, how well one's opponents fare is almost as important as one's own wins and losses.

To claim the top seed in 4A West, it seems as if the magic number for opponents' combined wins is right at 50, perhaps 51. Even if Salem manages to go 10-0 - and I am in no way assuming that - it remains to be seen if the Spartans' ten opponents will combine for that many victories. From what we know right now, it could be very close - 48 or 49 seems like a good conservative estimate. The key will be how well the other seven River Ridge District teams do in their non-district games. Last season, they combined to go a paltry 7-14 against non-district competition; Pulaski Co. earned three of those seven wins. That means six RRD schools combined for a grand total of four non-district victories. That's putrid, and that was the primary reason Salem finished six ratings points out of the top spot. Of course, the situation is the same for all the teams. I'm just looking at things from a Spartans fan's viewpoint.

This is why I wouldn't be surprised to see Woodgrove or Sherando - or possibly both, if both finish 10-0 - be seeded higher than a hypothetically undefeated Salem this fall. And if that's the case, it will be well-deserved. Let the seeds fall where they may! The cream will rise to the top in the playoffs, whichever team that may be.

 

[hamspear]

Kier from Millbrook will get his yards this year, probably a 2000 yard guy. I think Millbrook will be solid team, and win quite a few games, another favorable schedule with out of district opponents on the lower class and weaker side. if we were ranking the top ten in the West, I would have them maybe squeak in at around 10. The problem is when you get to the playoffs, teams will shut down one dimensional offenses. He is a beast, but take him out of the equation and the options for offensive output are minimal. last year they Nijah, and a few other options, they are gone. Probably a open tryout for QB also, which is the most important position on the team. I see them making the playoffs though, probably the second best team in the Northwestern District. I will probably eat crow later haha

 

[hamspear]

Concerning playoff seedings, being the best team doesn't necessarily correlate to getting the number one seed. Last year showed us that. Salem was three touchdowns clear of everyone else in the West, yet did well just to hold on to the third seed. With the VHSL's ratings scale formula, how well one's opponents fare is almost as important as one's own wins and losses.

To claim the top seed in 4A West, it seems as if the magic number for opponents' combined wins is right at 50, perhaps 51. Even if Salem manages to go 10-0 - and I am in no way assuming that - it remains to be seen if the Spartans' ten opponents will combine for that many victories. From what we know right now, it could be very close - 48 or 49 seems like a good conservative estimate. The key will be how well the other seven River Ridge District teams do in their non-district games. Last season, they combined to go a paltry 7-14 against non-district competition; Pulaski Co. earned three of those seven wins. That means six RRD schools combined for a grand total of four non-district victories. That's putrid, and that was the primary reason Salem finished six ratings points out of the top spot. Of course, the situation is the same for all the teams. I'm just looking at things from a Spartans fan's viewpoint.

This is why I wouldn't be surprised to see Woodgrove or Sherando - or possibly both, if both finish 10-0 - be seeded higher than a hypothetically undefeated Salem this fall. And if that's the case, it will be well-deserved. Let the seeds fall where they may! The cream will rise to the top in the playoffs, whichever team that may be.

I don't think Sherando will finish 10-0 this year, and I am a homer. Martinsburg is returning what may be one of the best teams in a long time, with a exceptional QB. fort Hill just ran off I think there third straight State Championship and return almost every player from that team, then you have Louisa, EV, both playoff contenders. Millbrook still out there also.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

I don't think Sherando will finish 10-0 this year, and I am a homer. Martinsburg is returning what may be one of the best teams in a long time, with a exceptional QB. fort Hill just ran off I think there third straight State Championship and return almost every player from that team, then you have Louisa, EV, both playoff contenders. Millbrook still out there also.

Did the Fort Hill mess get straightened out? They are still on the schedule, correct?

 

[hamspear]

It's all on there end as far as I know. I believe it will get worked out, I know the whole town of Cumberland is more worried about Fort Hill Football than anything on the face of the earth. I also believe if the game can't be played on the contracted Friday night as they scheduled, then it will get moved to Saturday before both teams sit at home not playing. I don't believe either team wants to sit at home on a Weekend without a game. It's really way to late for any other option or to schedule another team. It was a exciting game to watch last year.

 

[DanvilleSportsHead]

Though I talked a little junk about Sherando last season, they're one of the best programs in the state year in and year out. Rivers is one of the best players in the state and they'll have other options. Big, strong, football players. Always well coached. Hate to see them go to 5a, but they will compete.

 

[shauntclair]

Concerning playoff seedings, being the best team doesn't necessarily correlate to getting the number one seed. Last year showed us that. Salem was three touchdowns clear of everyone else in the West, yet did well just to hold on to the third seed. With the VHSL's ratings scale formula, how well one's opponents fare is almost as important as one's own wins and losses.

To claim the top seed in 4A West, it seems as if the magic number for opponents' combined wins is right at 50, perhaps 51. Even if Salem manages to go 10-0 - and I am in no way assuming that - it remains to be seen if the Spartans' ten opponents will combine for that many victories. From what we know right now, it could be very close - 48 or 49 seems like a good conservative estimate. The key will be how well the other seven River Ridge District teams do in their non-district games. Last season, they combined to go a paltry 7-14 against non-district competition; Pulaski Co. earned three of those seven wins. That means six RRD schools combined for a grand total of four non-district victories. That's putrid, and that was the primary reason Salem finished six ratings points out of the top spot. Of course, the situation is the same for all the teams. I'm just looking at things from a Spartans fan's viewpoint.

This is why I wouldn't be surprised to see Woodgrove or Sherando - or possibly both, if both finish 10-0 - be seeded higher than a hypothetically undefeated Salem this fall. And if that's the case, it will be well-deserved. Let the seeds fall where they may! The cream will rise to the top in the playoffs, whichever team that may be.

Really well thought out and objective post. Liked it a lot. Especially when so many others followed with more unbiased and logic based opinions. You're a trend setter.

 

[hamspear]

Jus

It's all on there end as far as I know. I believe it will get worked out, I know the whole town of Cumberland is more worried about Fort Hill Football than anything on the face of the earth. I also believe if the game can't be played on the contracted Friday night as they scheduled, then it will get moved to Saturday before both teams sit at home not playing. I don't believe either team wants to sit at home on a Weekend without a game. It's really way to late for any other option or to schedule another team. It was a exciting game to watch last year.

been informed the Fort Hill game has been moved to a 8pm start , the other game will be played at 4pm on the same Friday night.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Good deal. Glad you got the later game instead of a dreaded 4:00pm kick off.

 

[3puttcharlie]

Nostroldamus....aint nobody hanging 41 on salem dinwiddee aint beating lake taylor

 

[mike salem]

Concerning playoff seedings, being the best team doesn't necessarily correlate to getting the number one seed. Last year showed us that. Salem was three touchdowns clear of everyone else in the West, yet did well just to hold on to the third seed. With the VHSL's ratings scale formula, how well one's opponents fare is almost as important as one's own wins and losses.

To claim the top seed in 4A West, it seems as if the magic number for opponents' combined wins is right at 50, perhaps 51. Even if Salem manages to go 10-0 - and I am in no way assuming that - it remains to be seen if the Spartans' ten opponents will combine for that many victories. From what we know right now, it could be very close - 48 or 49 seems like a good conservative estimate. The key will be how well the other seven River Ridge District teams do in their non-district games. Last season, they combined to go a paltry 7-14 against non-district competition; Pulaski Co. earned three of those seven wins. That means six RRD schools combined for a grand total of four non-district victories. That's putrid, and that was the primary reason Salem finished six ratings points out of the top spot. Of course, the situation is the same for all the teams. I'm just looking at things from a Spartans fan's viewpoint.

This is why I wouldn't be surprised to see Woodgrove or Sherando - or possibly both, if both finish 10-0 - be seeded higher than a hypothetically undefeated Salem this fall. And if that's the case, it will be well-deserved. Let the seeds fall where they may! The cream will rise to the top in the playoffs, whichever team that may be.

Good post Spartan, last year's opponents won 47 games, I think this year they'll put up 50. 2 more from Amherst, 1 more from Byrd, 2 less from Northside, 2 more from Hidden Valley, everybody else same as last year.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

I wonder how opponents winning 50 games, (to be close to the minimum), correlates across the board, to making the playoffs? There are a lot of variables. I wonder if you threw out a few extremes, or added a couple of "ifs", if you could make assumptions or projections? And knowing that the number may be slightly off from 50, would it still be a fairly accurate indicator?

I guess the best way to validate this theory would be to go back several years and crunch the numbers, and create a hind cast. Looks like a classic job for Matt Gilliam!

 

[SpartanOfYore]

I wonder how opponents winning 50 games, (to be close to the minimum), correlates across the board, to making the playoffs? There are a lot of variables. I wonder if you threw out a few extremes, or added a couple of "ifs", if you could make assumptions or projections? And knowing that the number may be slightly off from 50, would it still be a fairly accurate indicator?

I guess the best way to validate this theory would be to go back several years and crunch the numbers, and create a hind cast. Looks like a classic job for Matt Gilliam!

I did some very minimal number crunching. For the first three seasons under the new format, the "opponents' combined wins" totals for the 4A West number one seeds have been:

2013 - Sherando 52
2014 - Salem 49
2015 - Jefferson Forest 51

That's an average of 50.667 - call it 51.

 

[1MoreHokie]

I don't think Sherando will finish 10-0 this year, and I am a homer. Martinsburg is returning what may be one of the best teams in a long time, with a exceptional QB. fort Hill just ran off I think there third straight State Championship and return almost every player from that team, then you have Louisa, EV, both playoff contenders. Millbrook still out there also.

I'd say if Sherando struggles with EV or Louisa you can probably bet on them not winning 10 in the regular season.

 

[hamspear]

I'd say if Sherando struggles with EV or Louisa you can probably bet on them not winning 10 in the regular season.

I would agree