Expanded playoff stats. Worth it?

[GilliamRatings]

Have gained anything from expanding the playoffs? I don't know. Here's the numbers under the new system. You can decide for yourself if they justify or don't justify anything. For purposes of this I assigned seed numbers 1-16 to 5A and 6A South based on their VHSL rating so their opponents don't match up like the other regions.

Seeds of State Champions in 2013
1 seed - 3 state titles
2 seed - 2 state titles
3 seed - 1 state title

Seeds of teams advancing to State finals (2013 & 2014)
1 seed - 13 teams
2 seed - 5 teams
3 seed - 3 teams
4 seed - 3 teams (Only one 4 seed made it in 2013 and they lost--L.C. Bird & Glenvar seek to be first 4 seeds to win title)

Seeds of teams advancing to state semis (and records in semi final games)
1 seed - 16 (13-3)
2 seed - 12 (5-7)
3 seed - 7 (3-4)
4 seed - 5 (3-2)
5 seed - 5 (0-5)
6 seed - 3 (0-3)

Seeds of teams advancing to state quarters (and record in quarter final games)
1 seed - 19 (16-3)
2 seed - 20 (12-8)
3 seed - 15 (7-8)
4 seed - 12 (5-7)
5 seed - 8 (5-3)
6 seed - 7 (3-4)
7 seed - 4 (0-4)
8 seed - 2 (0-2)
9 seed - 3 (0-3)
10 seed - 0
11 seed - 0
12 seed - 3 (0-3)
13 seed - 1 (0-1)
14 seed - 0
15 seed - 1 (0-1)
16 seed - 1 (0-1)

seeds of teams advancing to final sixteen (and record in round of 16 games)
1 seed - 23 (19-4)
2 seed - 24 (20-4)
3 seed - 23 (15-8)
4 seed - 19 (12-7)
5 seed - 19 (8-11)
6 seed - 17 (7-10)
7 seed - 17 (4-13)
8 seed - 13 (2-11)
9 seed - 11 (3-8)
10 seed - 6 (0-6)
11 seed - 6 (0-6)
12 seed - 8 (3-5)
13 seed - 4 (1-3)
14 seed - 0
15 seed - 1 (1-0)
16 seed - 1 (1-0)

overall playoff records of the various seeds:
1 seed (74-14)
2 seed (63-19)
3 seed (49-23)
4 seed (39-22)
5 seed (32-24)
6 seed (27-24)
7 seed (21-24)
8 seed (15-24)
9 seed (14-24)
10 seed (6-24)
11 seed (6-24)
12 seed (11-24)
13 seed (5-24)
14 seed (0-24)
15 seed (2-24)
16 seed (2-24)

This post was edited on 12/12 5:45 PM by GilliamRatings

 

[GilliamRatings]

The 15 seed that advanced two rounds may have slipped by you. It was James River of Chesterfield, who had an 8 written by their name because 6A south seeds by sub-region, but if they had seeded 1-16 like everyone else James River would have been a 15 seed (and would have had to face Oscar Smith in the first round).

In the short history (1 year), no 2 seed has ever played in a state final game and lost!

To keep that trend alive:
The 2 seed Altavista would have to beat 1 seed Essex.
The 2 seed Wilson Memorial would have to beat the 4 seed Glenvar.
The 2 seed Magna Vista would have to beat the 1 seed Lafayette.
The 4A and 6A finals match-up 1 seeds.
The 5A final matches 1 seed Lafayette vs. 4 see L.C. Bird

Even if you reseed entire 5A south based on power ratings Bird is still a 4 seed, though by the seeds they faced more like an 11 seed bracket playing the 6, 1, 2 and 5 seeds to get to finals.

Ordinarily the 11 seed would play 6, 3, 2, 1 if everything went to form, which is why I say this seems more like an 11 seed path than a 4 seed path.

5A and 6A south are putting some good teams at a considerable disadvantage compared to their counterparts in other regions. Bird has probably felt the wrath of this the most in the last two playoffs, though it didn't seem to hurt them any as they advanced through to finals both times.

Last year as the state's #1 seed Bird managed to have to play a 7-3 team in the first round of the playoffs, while no other 1 seed faced a team with a winning record.

I may sound like I'm complaining, but I love the 5A sub-regional. It still feels like the old Central Region playoffs that I have loved more many, many years. If they changed it, I would miss some of the usual clashes of Central Region schools that we only get in the playoffs.

 

[GilliamRatings]

One other comment...

The VHSL power ratings have no mathematical foundation to make us think they very accurately seed teams in the first place, so it's interesting to see that, for the most part, even without much of a foundation, they do a good enough job that the the better the seed, the better the overall performance in the playoffs.