4B

[OCBoy]

Looks like it will be a close repeat to last years playoff seeds. Dinwiddie has a few 3A teams left on their schedule that shouldn’t hurt them at all cause they are winning. Monacan has 5/6A teams on their schedule that should propel them to #2. EV and Louisa will appear to flip seedings. Louisa doesn’t appear to get much help from Jefferson district teams compared to EV getting help from Battlefield teams. That’s the opposite from last year where the Jefferson gave Louisa more bonus points. 5-8 will be way more competitive than last year. Courtland, Huguenot, Midlothian, and Powhatan should round out 4B in no specific order. If I had to guess this is what it could look like....
1. Dinwiddie
2. Monacan
3. EV
4. Louisa
5. Courtland
6. Midlothian
7. Huguenot
8. Powhatan
It appears Courtland will get a rematch with EV or Louisa in the first round of the playoffs

 

[1Gensfan]

We can't overlook 3A defending state champs Hopewell. They are also undefeated. We can't take them lightly All of the top 8 in 4B are going to have to play mistake free football in November. I believe we have Hopewell in 3 weeks

 

[DinwiddieProud]

OC, it boils down to only two things now.

1). Winning each game. Stumble just once and you tumble in the standings.

2). And, since an opponent you beat in your district is playing another district opponent you beat, that is a wash. The key is the wins by a non district opponent you beat. In our case, we need Denbigh, Smithfield, and Salem to win each week. Because of a little quark in the Central District schedule, two district opponents have a fourth non-district game that we need them to win.

Colonial Heights needs to beat Appomattox, and Thomas Dale needs to beat Granby.

But again, we HAVE to win each week, or it basically becomes meaningless.

And the important thing about all of this is being the higher seed and playing at home. Something we all desire.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

We can't overlook 3A defending state champs Hopewell. They are also undefeated. We can't take them lightly All of the top 8 in 4B are going to have to play mistake free football in November. I believe we have Hopewell in 3 weeks

You are correct, my friend. We can't look past any of the opponents left.

Meadowbrook plays Dinwiddie with a vengeance. The want to beat us for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is to ruin our Homecoming. And they have plenty of talent and are battle tested.

Hopewell has a team that can beat almost anybody, anywhere, at any time. Enough said!

Petersburg is always scary. Their QB and his father, the Head Coach, are a heck of a pair. They have speed, and big play capability. I don't think they can play Dinwiddie even up if they get conservative and try to grind it out. But, if they gamble with big plays, they can put up points in a hurry.

Colonial Heights is not without weapons. Their pass and catch game is pretty darn good. Like Petersburg above, depth of really good athletes is going to cause them to need to get some breaks. Fumbles, interceptions, and kickoff or punt returns for TD's can keep them hanging around. And if that happens, who knows. Who picked ODU to beat Tech? "On any given Friday... !"

At this point, the boys need to focus on this week's job..., "each week". No celebration permitted tfor what has been accomplished. The season so far has been nothing more than tests. And studying for those test. A lot of studying, and a lot of test left before even considering being happy. They are not even half way to the goal.

Anything other than packing the lunch pail and going to work and giving 110% will result in a loss and probably a goal unfulfilled.

 

[VAHSFootballFan]

If my math is correct Monacan losing to an undefeated Manchester squad would be worth 24 points at seasons end. This would be the same as beating a winless Class 5 or a 1 win Class 4 (or below). Can someone confirm or correct this?

 

[oldfool]

CH will not beat Appo

 

[1Gensfan]

If my math is correct Monacan losing to an undefeated Manchester squad would be worth 24 points at seasons end. This would be the same as beating a winless Class 5 or a 1 win Class 4 (or below). Can someone confirm or correct this?

Yes that would be correct.

 

[anon_vu6vqwsr4nf3b]

What does that mean for Louisa if they win out? Can they finish above Monacan?

 

[anon_vu6vqwsr4nf3b]

I'd prefer for Courtland to NOT have their 4th chance in 2 seasons to beat us, thanks.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

CH will not beat Appo

I agree. The upset would knock the earth off its axis. If they score more than 7, and give up less than 50, it will be surprising. They are about where they were last year, but playing at Appo. It will get ugly, quickly.

But you could be nice and let them win so we can get a couple of extra points? Call it an early Christmas present.

 

[OCBoy]

What does that mean for Louisa if they win out? Can they finish above Monacan?

I think that’s mathematical impossible. I think the Louisa will have a better shot at jumping EV

 

[oldfool]

I agree. The upset would knock the earth off its axis. If they score more than 7, and give up less than 50, it will be surprising. They are about where they were last year, but playing at Appo. It will get ugly, quickly.

But you could be nice and let them win so we can get a couple of extra points? Call it an early Christmas present.

Anything for you and we will help you out!

 

[mbonape1]

Well like everyone else said you gotta win out. Monacan has 4 playoff teams in a row to finish the season. Going undefeated is going to be tough. Bird has not been healthy but will be by the time we play in 2 weeks. We could win out but it certainly isn’t a lock for that outcome. Good to know if we do win out we will be a solid 2 seed

 

[OCBoy]

Well like everyone else said you gotta win out. Monacan has 4 playoff teams in a row to finish the season. Going undefeated is going to be tough. Bird has not been healthy but will be by the time we play in 2 weeks. We could win out but it certainly isn’t a lock for that outcome. Good to know if we do win out we will be a solid 2 seed

I believe even a loss to some of those 5/6A teams will still garner enough points for the 2 seed

 

[mbonape1]

I believe even a loss to some of those 5/6A teams will still garner enough points for the 2 seed

Really? Wow! I would almost feel guilty about that but prolly not!

 

[OCBoy]

Really? Wow! I would almost feel guilty about that but prolly not!

I wouldn’t feel guilty. It just proves how weak of a schedule Louisa and EV have

 

[DinwiddieProud]

If the Chiefs fall to anybody other than Bird, that would reveal a serious weakness in my book. Cosby, Midlothian, and Hugeunout should be very winnable by Monacan. Bird, I say is 50/50.

 

[mbonape1]

If the Chiefs fall to anybody other than Bird, that would reveal a serious weakness in my book. Cosby, Midlothian, and Hugeunout should be very winnable by Monacan. Bird, I say is 50/50.

I would agree but I can tell you the degree of separation isn’t that great as a lot you guys think it is this season. I don’t believe their are any super teams in our region. The top teams are good but not as good as last year and the bottom teams are better than last year.

What if you lose to Hopewell? What does that mean? I don’t know if they would beat Huguenot or not.

 

[OCBoy]

I would agree but I can tell you the degree of separation isn’t that great as a lot you guys think it is this season. I don’t believe their are any super teams in our region. The top teams are good but not as good as last year and the bottom teams are better than last year.

What if you lose to Hopewell? What does that mean? I don’t know if they would beat Huguenot or not.

If they lost to Hopewell they still would have the bonus points of Hopewell’s wins. The only problem on that scenario is Hopewell is 3A and they would get less points compared to a 4-6A team

 

[OCBoy]

One things for sure the top 4 last year will be the top 4 this year

 

[mbonape1]

If they lost to Hopewell they still would have the bonus points of Hopewell’s wins. The only problem on that scenario is Hopewell is 3A and they would get less points compared to a 4-6A team

Was just shooting a mini boulder over DP’s Bough!

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Like most years, the team that scares me is Lake Taylor. I know they are not in our region, but they are coming on fast.

As far as Region B, I agree, it's pretty darn competitive. You just have to think that the top four will beat each other up again. I don't think any of the bottom four should knock off any of the top four, no matter how they ultimately match up.

Navy and I often discuss this topic. He asked me Friday who would I most want to play. That was easy. Louisa, strictly so we can revenge the loss. But I'm sure EV wants to play US for the same reason.

But the truth may be, we all had better be worried about how we would match up with Monacan. Coach Henderson sometimes makes calls that leave us scratching our heads. Which is partly why they worry me. That unpredictablity can make you a hero in a hurry. That reverse, halfback pass last nigh is a good example of what I'm talking about. Except for a mistake by a freshman player, that might have made the top 10 plays this week.

 

[OCBoy]

Was just shooting a mini boulder over DP’s Bough!

It’s many situations to look at with these last few games. It will indeed get interesting. The Louisa EV difference could be a tenth.

 

[OCBoy]

Like most years, the team that scares me is Lake Taylor. I know they are not in our region, but they are coming on fast.

As far as Region B, I agree, it's pretty darn competitive. You just have to think that the top four will beat each other up again. I don't think any of the bottom four should knock off any of the top four, no matter how they ultimately match up.

Navy and I often discuss this topic. He asked me Friday who would I most want to play. That was easy. Louisa, strictly so we can revenge the loss. But I'm sure EV wants to play US for the same reason.

But the truth may be, we all had better be worried about how we would match up with Monacan. Coach Henderson sometimes makes calls that leave us scratching our heads. Which is partly why they worry me. That unpredictablity can make you a hero in a hurry. That reverse, halfback pass last nigh is a good example of what I'm talking about. Except for a mistake by a freshman player, that might have made the top 10 plays this week.

And yes I’m sure EV wants a second shot. They would prefer it to be at Cyclone stadium though

 

[DinwiddieProud]

I'm not hoping that that is the way it works out, but I look forward to seeing a game at Cyclone Stadium, as well as at the Jungle, one day.

 

[mbonape1]

Like most years, the team that scares me is Lake Taylor. I know they are not in our region, but they are coming on fast.

As far as Region B, I agree, it's pretty darn competitive. You just have to think that the top four will beat each other up again. I don't think any of the bottom four should knock off any of the top four, no matter how they ultimately match up.

Navy and I often discuss this topic. He asked me Friday who would I most want to play. That was easy. Louisa, strictly so we can revenge the loss. But I'm sure EV wants to play US for the same reason.

But the truth may be, we all had better be worried about how we would match up with Monacan. Coach Henderson sometimes makes calls that leave us scratching our heads. Which is partly why they worry me. That unpredictablity can make you a hero in a hurry. That reverse, halfback pass last nigh is a good example of what I'm talking about. Except for a mistake by a freshman player, that might have made the top 10 plays this week.

Like most years, the team that scares me is Lake Taylor. I know they are not in our region, but they are coming on fast.

As far as Region B, I agree, it's pretty darn competitive. You just have to think that the top four will beat each other up again. I don't think any of the bottom four should knock off any of the top four, no matter how they ultimately match up.

Navy and I often discuss this topic. He asked me Friday who would I most want to play. That was easy. Louisa, strictly so we can revenge the loss. But I'm sure EV wants to play US for the same reason.

But the truth may be, we all had better be worried about how we would match up with Monacan. Coach Henderson sometimes makes calls that leave us scratching our heads. Which is partly why they worry me. That unpredictablity can make you a hero in a hurry. That reverse, halfback pass last nigh is a good example of what I'm talking about. Except for a mistake by a freshman player, that might have made the top 10 plays this week.

Ironically the only team in the top 4 that I have seen a few times on video is Dinwiddie... Can we beat them? Yes we can. Can we lose to them. You bet ya! Won’t get any predictions out of me. I have a secret assumption that the top 4 teams will all be 50/50 games. Might boil down to whonwont beat themselves wins the region as morbid as that sounds

 

[OCBoy]

I'm not hoping that that is the way it works out, but I look forward to seeing a game at Cyclone Stadium, as well as at the Jungle, one day.

It won’t happen this year unless Dinwiddie stumbles in the next four games

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Ironically the only team in the top 4 that I have seen a few times on video is Dinwiddie... Can we beat them? Yes we can. Can we lose to them. You bet ya! Won’t get any predictions out of me. I have a secret assumption that the top 4 teams will all be 50/50 games. Might boil down to whonwont beat themselves wins the region as morbid as that sounds

That's what I was trying to say. You just put it a lot more eloquently than I could.

 

[VAHSFootballFan]

Haven't broken down possible points for Louisa/EV yet (too many variables/not enough time) however some things to keep in mind.
EV's OOD (out-of-district) opponents- Culpeper, Brentsville, Turner-Ashby, Orange
Louisa's OOD opponents- King George, Courtland, Chancellor

1. Louisa's 3 out-of-district opponents all play (and lose) to EV.
2. EV played Orange, who plays Louisa in district.
3. EV had Culpeper and Brentsville who play each other.
4. All of Louisa's OOD opponents are Battlefield which means they play each other, limiting wins (but also guaranteeing wins, kind of hedging your bet).

 

[m-squared]

Courtland has already played both Chancellor and King George. So only one game in the next 4 weeks where these three teams play each other - Chancellor vs King George. From the way it's gone so far, I'm thinking Chancellor wins out (they've also already played EV). Unless James Monroe upsets Courtland (which I hope happens since I'm a JM alum), Courtland wins out. KIng George isn't doign as well. Not sure they will win another game unless they still have Caroline to plan. Have a good one!

 

[VAHSFootballFan]

Looking at EV and Louisa. Took the time to extrapolate everything out and if both teams win out I'm not sure EV holds its current lead. I believe Dinwiddie and Louisa both overtake them after 10/19 (EV's bye).
A couple of minor factors play in here:
1. Louisa plays two Class 5 teams where as EV plays just one.
2. Contrary to what was said before the Jefferson is not down compared to last year, just the teams doing well are different. Monticello and Albemarle are down while Fluvanna and Western are better. Powhatan and Orange seemed to have flip-flopped as well.
3. Battlefield is up a little due to the resurgence of Courtland BUT Louisa and EV both play Courtland so those points are a wash.

 

[Louisadad]

I wouldn’t feel guilty. It just proves how weak of a schedule Louisa and EV have

As we all know schedules are made in advance. So we will play the hand we dealt ourselves this year. With the addition of 2 powerful schools that have been added to next 2 years schedule. LOUISA will have a much stronger schedule and won’t be in this points problem. But before we play a game next year we must finish stronger and better each week. “GO LIONS”