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Jefferson District 2015

I watched the Powhatan/Western game. Powhatan threw two interceptions and fumbled three times against Western, and then had blown pass coverage on defense nearly every drive, which is why Western scored at such a rapid pace and scored 59 points. By halftime, the teams combined for nearly 600 yards of offense. Powhatan did a decent job against Western's running game, and of course Louisa likes to run, so that's part of why the Louisa/Powhatan game was so close (I also think the short turnaround between games also affected play by both teams). I know Western's RB Herndon was out for a few weeks, but he came back against Powhatan, and receiver Kreienbaum has been banged up but had a good game against Powhatan. Other than that, I don't know how healthy they are. Louisa might have its best lineman #79 back on offense. Fullback is done for the year. Louisa should be able to stop or slow down the run, but their secondary will get tested often. Last year Louisa ran the 4-3 Cover 2, which gave Western QB Hearn fits. This year Louisa's back to the 3-5 with pressing man to man but might mix in some zone this week.
 
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@Outlaws99 I just re-watched it. They had two picks and three fumbles. My bad, I guess it felt like more picks to me because of how quickly Western was scoring, but that's still a large amount of turnovers and short fields for Western.
 
Not a big deal. Just didn't remember what you said it was. Too many turnovers regardless. Same story against Louisa. The bad call is part of the game. The loss came from the fumbles.
 
it's interesting to look at the predicted records of the Jefferson District teams on my site (I think). This is simply the current wins + sum of the probabilities of winning the remaining games and the current losses + sum of the probabilities of losing the remaining games.

So you get an expected record (with decimals-even though we know nobody will actually have a decimal final). Here's where everyone ends up.

8.14 wins Western
6.64 wins Albemarle
5.89 wins Monticello
5.78 wins Orange
5.07 wins Louisa
4.99 wins Charlottesville
4.13 wins Powhatan
0.39 wins Fluvanna

Still Fluvanna on your schedule helps you in this little game.
 
I'll just say I think it'll be an exciting game, and I hope you come and enjoy the game and the Jungle atmosphere on what should be a night of perfect football weather. :)

Hanover reminds me of Western Albemarle, as both teams like to run the option out of the Pistol and have big QBs and big, physical linemen, but Western has a better passing game. If Louisa wins, they should be battle tested if they have to face Hanover in the playoffs.
 
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I think Hanover would be a decent draw for Louisa. I don't think Hanover would concede anything in the who is most battle tested contest, however. Highland Springs last week is about as tough as it gets. Varina and Lee-Davis coming up. Dinwiddie, Hopewell, Atlee, Henrico all pretty good. I do think this schedule might have looked even worse before the season started than it does now, though. Atlee and Dinwiddie are probably down a bit from what was expected.
 
Scores tonight and thoughts tonight? I assume Louisa lost, not seeing any big posts about that game. Orange gave Monticello a good game and had their chances. Not heard on Powhatan. We lost big no surprise there.
 
Scores tonight and thoughts tonight? I assume Louisa lost, not seeing any big posts about that game. Orange gave Monticello a good game and had their chances. Not heard on Powhatan. We lost big no surprise there.
Orange held to 108 yards of total offense on the night, under 100 rushing. Orange offense earned 2 first downs on the night, Mustangs gave them 3 on penalties. Game was physical and not anywhere as close as the score indicates. Good night all the way around by the Mustangs. Finally starting to get the pieces in place and seasoning on the young guns!
 
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Orange held to 108 yards of total offense on the night, under 100 rushing. Orange offense earned 2 first downs on the night, Mustangs gave them 3 on penalties. Game was physical and not anywhere as close as the score indicates. Good night all the way around by the Mustangs. Finally starting to get the pieces in place and seasoning on the young guns!
Yeah mustang defense is pretty solid. Looking like they will finish second. Don't see them losing the rest of the way either.
 
The computer seems to mirror the CW.

73.50 Western Albemarle
63.25 Monticello
60.85 Albemarle
59.41 Louisa
55.54 Orange
55.52 Powhatan
50.34 Charlottesville
17.90 Fluvanna

Western by 56 over Fluvanna
Monticello by 4 over Louisa
Orange by 5 over Charlottesville
Albemarle by 5 over Powhatan

So three really good games this week. A lot on the line for most everyone as far as playoff seeds go.
 
Jon Gruden called former Louisa player Kerry Wynn the best player on the Giants defense last night. Huge compliment!
 
Official Computer Jefferson District predictions:

Albemarle 15, Powhatan 10
Monticello 21, Louisa 17
Orange 25, Charlottesville 20
Western Albemarle 64, Fluvanna 10
Computer pretty generous this week. We will see. The orange and cville game is probably going to be the best game in the district.
 
The computer is still pretty determined there's not a lot of difference in teams 2 through 7. I don't think Western tries to run it up on Flucos, I'd be surprised if they put up any points in 4th quarter.

Orange needs that game pretty badly. They likely get in playoffs at 5-5, but 6-4 gets them a lot more reasonable first round opponent. Beatling C'ville is probably easier than beating Louisa.
 
Just an FYI, I realize there are no playoff implications.

Powhatan lost 3 more starters last night. Broken hand, broken wrist and a broken leg. Two of the three were captains.

Pretty sure we are up to 15 now. Not nagging injuries but catastrophic. An unbelievable rash of freak injuries.

This game always leaves you with something. For sure, our kids have at least learned to take nothing for granted.

If your team is healthy and able to participate in the postseason, be thankful.
 
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It was a super win for Orange. 5-3 with two to play. Likely a 6-4 finish. That ought to get them in the playoffs and not as a 15 or 16 seed. They will be pretty sound underdogs to Louisa, but not monster underdogs. 7-3 would get the Hornets a real nice seed. After 4 straight seasons of ineptitude, this is a lot of fun.

I still think a playoff win for Albemarle or Orange is asking too much. 5A is way better than 6A this year, it seems.
 
With the regular season quickly winding down, here are some thoughts on each team.

I thought Fluvanna would have a better season than 0-10, but the talent and heart just aren't there.

Charlottesville started the season like they were going to surprise some people, but turnovers and inconsistency has hurt them all year. I attribute this mostly to youth, as most of the backfield and line are young.

Powhatan is decimated by injuries, probably would've had a 7-3 or better season if they were healthy. They are still fairly young, so they can only improve next year.

Orange surprised me and has competed with nearly everyone on their schedule. I thought it would take at least a year to go in the right direction. A winning record to finish the season will be a huge step for Coach Lohr and his program's morale. Just PLEASE build a real football stadium.

Monticello is having the season I expected before they played Lake Taylor and after playing WA. Before the season, with the loss of Coach Woody and Athletic Director Barnes, I thought this would be sort of a "down" year by their standards, and it is. After watching them play Lake Taylor and compete with the Titans for two-and-a-half quarters, I thought they'd be the top team of the JD. However, they aren't that physical and the offense isn't as crisp as it was under Woody and his hurry-up system, and losing Kyree Koonce was a big blow. I think they can win one playoff game, but that's it.

Louisa has had a roller-coaster season, and as an fan it has been either frustrating or fun as heck. The defense started the year very poorly with mistakes on nearly every play, but have improved markedly. At times they're still inconsistent, as the Western Albemarle game showed, but at other times they look like a playoff defense bent on surprising people. If the Monticello game was any indication, they should be capable of winning a playoff game or more.

Albemarle has also been a surprise, in my opinion. For as young as they are, they play pretty sharply and haven't made many mistakes besides the Brookville and Orange games. Coach Isaiah has proven to be a big lift to the program. Their offense isn't as potent as the hurry up of last year, but it's good enough to win games as long as their defense keeps playing as tough as it's been. We will see how good they really are when they face Western to end the regular season. I think Albemarle is capable of winning a playoff game depending on if they win out and who they draw.

Western Albemarle has shown they are head and shoulders above the rest of the district. Seeing as they should finish 9-1 with their only blemish against Brookville, they have played as well as I expected; they are the most experienced team after all. With a healthy QB Sam Hearn, and big, fast and strong running back Oliver Herndon, they can beat a lot of teams in wide open 3A. I think Hearn might be better than Kent Henry before him. With their improvements over the course of the season, I think they're the JD's best shot at a run to states.
 
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Predictions for this week's games:

Albemarle over Monticello, but it's a toss up
Louisa over Orange for the annual Battle of the Gordonsville Tastee-Freez
Western Albemarle over Charlottesville with or without QB Sam Hearn
Powhatan over Fluvanna in a blowout

It looks like the order of finish should be:

1. Western Albemarle
2. Albemarle
2. Louisa
3. Monticello
4. Orange
5. Powhatan
6. Charlottesville
7. Fluvanna
 
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Monticello is having the season I expected before they played Lake Taylor and after playing WA. Before the season, with the loss of Coach Woody and Athletic Director Barnes, I thought this would be sort of a "down" year by their standards, and it is. After watching them play Lake Taylor and compete with the Titans for two-and-a-half quarters, I thought they'd be the top team of the JD. However, they aren't that physical and the offense isn't as crisp as it was under Woody and his hurry-up system, and losing Kyree Koonce was a big blow. I think they can win one playoff game, but that's it.
We shot ourselves in the foot the whole first half drove down the field and score immediately in the 2nd half. Next time it will be 3 quarters. Monticello played a good first half defensively but it was aided by our poor execution and field position. Offensively they didn't even make a dent
 
Monticello also beat themselves, still stopped you guys on 4th-down a couple of times, and it was 20-0 through 3 quarters. I consider that competing, because I thought the game was going to be ugly by halftime and worthy of being called off by the 4th. Your defense was lights out and prevented them from making a better game of it many times, but give them some credit. Their offensive line hasn't really blocked the good teams that well all year, so I see why your guys had their way. But still, Monticello has definitely improved from that game, and Louisa still had 21 first downs and 381 yards against them, with all of Monticello's starters playing the whole game.
 
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Orange surprised me and has competed with nearly everyone on their schedule. I thought it would take at least a year to go in the right direction. A winning record to finish the season will be a huge step for Coach Lohr and his program's morale. Just PLEASE build a real football stadium.

I would love for a bunch of people from outside of Orange County to come to one of our School Board meetings and spend about an hour making jokes about our athletic facilities. You think the football field is bad, come see the track...or tennis courts. I have spoken on the subject at enough School Board and Board of Supervisor meetings for one lifetime.
 
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This post seems as though you're trying to promote the Lions again to a degree where they might be able to compete with LT. Anything is possible but this scenario is very, very unlikely.

Just win on Friday. I expect Louisa to come out on top but don't underestimate the Hornets. That could be dangerous.
 
Predictions for this week's games:

Albemarle over Monticello, but it's a toss up
Louisa over Orange for the annual Battle of the Gordonsville Tastee-Freez
Western Albemarle over Charlottesville with or without QB Sam Hearn
Powhatan over Fluvanna in a blowout

It looks like the order of finish should be:

1. Western Albemarle
2. Albemarle
2. Louisa
3. Monticello
4. Orange
5. Powhatan
6. Charlottesville
7. Fluvanna
I was way off on Monticello, they dominated from start to finish, 26-0.

The only thing good about Porterfield park tonight was the great atmosphere by the fans. Orange came out with a good game plan early in the game, but Louisa adjusted and it was total domination beginning midway through the second quarter. Orange was probably held to negative total yards in the second half, while Louisa turned on the cruise control on offense.

Sam Hearn didn't play again for Western Albemarle, and didn't need to.

Total domination by Powhatan over the helpless Flucos.
 
Orange came out with a good game plan early in the game, but Louisa adjusted and it was total domination beginning midway through the second quarter.

You could feel the game turn when Orange was stopped on the 1 yard line early in the second quarter and Louisa scored in about 4 or 5 plays to make it 20-7. The game never really felt in doubt after that.
 
You could feel the game turn when Orange was stopped on the 1 yard line early in the second quarter and Louisa scored in about 4 or 5 plays to make it 20-7. The game never really felt in doubt after that.
Louisa JV sophomore outside linebacker Travis Poe was brought up for his first start, looked good. Orange started the game out of the Power I with 10-11 men in the box, with probably the biggest package I've seen all year (that's what she said!), but I might be wrong, and ran straight at us with those two monsters. I'm glad we did well against that after their third drive, to prepare us for the future. I don't even think Powhatan did that, again I might be wrong. After we built a lead they had to get away from that a little. QB Malik Bell turned into Beast Mode again on his 33-yard TD run on Louisa's first drive. Loved the shout out by Orange Coach Lohr to our defensive line in the DP, guess he saw what I've been seeing! Quinton Ragland, Jay'von Jackson, and Malik Johnson all played well. LOB. lol
 
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Key quote from Monticello Coach Lloyd in Scrimmage Play about their dominant win:
“We changed our scheme this week and our kids bought into it,” said Monticello coach Jeff Lloyd. “It took advantage of what we have, athleticism. We looked good tonight playing this way. The defense is an up-field pressure defense and we mixed the blitz packages tonight against them and they couldn't figure it out with so many players coming from different angles.”
I wanna see it! But it doesn't sound much different from what they've done all year, except against Louisa they couldn't blitz much against the Single Wing.
 
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