Playoff spots on the line in 1A East

[bpsdrefromva]

Hey guys.

Since I don't normally start posts, I thought I'd see how you all feel about what can happen in the playoffs coming up in 1A East. Lot of spots on the line. Here are the scenarios I have come up with through my (non-accurate) calculations on possible best scenarios.

1. Lancaster controls their own fate against Northumberland as well as other teams.

A Lancaster win results in...

*Lancaster clinches playoff berth.
*Surry must win to clinch playoff berth.

A Lancaster loss results in...

*Surry clinches playoff berth.
*Winner of Charles City/West Point clinches playoff berth.

2. Surry County is next in line.

A Surry win results in...

*Clinches playoff berth.

A Surry loss results in...

*A playoff berth with a Lancaster loss.
*Elimination from the playoffs with a Lancaster with.

3. Charles City/West Point will battle each other for a chance of a playoff spot requiring the following to happen.

*A loss by either Lancaster or Surry
*Winner of the contest should earn a berth.
*Both teams are eliminated if both Surry and Lancaster win.


I think I nailed it pretty well. I calculated that Northampton would fall short based on my numbers even with a win and William Campbell should be locked in now.

Do you love fall football? Sure you do...

 

[kwhs95fan]

Would the loser of the WP/CC game have a chance to get in? Surry plays Sussex I believe so they would be considered underdogs in that one and Lancaster would probably be considered a slight underdog against Northumberland although Lancaster is surely capable of winning. I guess by this time next week everyone will know for sure who they will be playing or if their season is over

 

[bpsdrefromva]

Would the loser of the WP/CC game have a chance to get in? Surry plays Sussex I believe so they would be considered underdogs in that one and Lancaster would probably be considered a slight underdog against Northumberland although Lancaster is surely capable of winning. I guess by this time next week everyone will know for sure who they will be playing or if their season is over

From my numbers the loser of WP/CC won't be able to get due to Surry having a considerable higher amount of power points and rider points.

A lot of games this week is when you can throw records out the window. It's all about rivalries.

Surry County at Sussex Central
Northumberland at Lancaster
Charles City at West Point

Time to buckle up because Friday will probably be one of the most exciting days of the year!

 

[Twobyfour]

I dont see surry having a chance against sussex. They just are not a very good team. They will be in if lancaster loses and wp beats cc. If cc beats wp, they will be in if lancaster loses and surry loses. WP cant get enough even if they win

 

[riversportsfan]

I would say Lancaster and Surry both lose next week. If West Point wins, who gets the final two seeds?

 

[Twobyfour]

WP is at 125. If win get 16 plus 4, for 20 plus 2 maybe 3 rider points at most for total of 23. Puts them at 148. Surry at 138 a loss 4 plus Sussex 10 wins=14, plus 3 maybe 4 rider points for total of 18 puts them at 156. Lancaster at 139, loss is 4 plus numberland 6 wins =10 plus at least 3 maybe 4 rider points for total of 14 put them at 153.
Right now Surry is out. WP can play spoiler against CC. If lan and surry lose and WP wins, lan will finish 12th and surry will finish 11, cc will be out. NH is at 129, a win against 2a arcadia would give them 18, plus arcadia 3 wins=21 plus 3 rider points=24 puts them at 153, would tie Lancaster for 12th spot. Certainly going to be interesting.

 

[Twobyfour]

As you can see, 1 rider point here or there will have a huge impact. Surry is in, just a matter of where. Final spot is up to lan, cc, nh

 

[NNDman]

Your calculations are a tad off on the rider points. For each victory by a defeated opponent a team gets 2 points. Teams get 1 point for every win by a team they lose to.

 

[Twobyfour]

Your calculations are a tad off on the rider points. For each victory by a defeated opponent a team gets 2 points. Teams get 1 point for every win by a team they lose to.

My projections are more of guess. In no way should anyone put any credence in my post. It is very unofficial, but I did manage to have the points correct for this week, even before the games were played. I know they get 1 or 2 rider points, but only if that team wins their game.

 

[JoelzDad]

Whoever "makes" the playoffs will get on a bus. Travel for a long while...and get blown out. Hate to be a downer, but thats the case. BIG DISCREPANCY between number 5 and number 16. I hope my Lancaster Devils win, don't get me wrong.

 

[Twobyfour]

Whoever "makes" the playoffs will get on a bus. Travel for a long while...and get blown out. Hate to be a downer, but thats the case. BIG DISCREPANCY between number 5 and number 16. I hope my Lancaster Devils win, don't get me wrong.

That rings more true for the west. Only 12 in the east, so with the byes, the first round should be much more interesting in the east, with quite a few games being a rematch

 

[THEGOATFROMJMU]

12 is the correct number for 1A.... the depth just isn't there to validate allowing 16 in.

 

[HighestPoint]

East and West Bubble teams. *I did it for my own curiosity, thought I would share. If I am wrong, let me know* Hopefully this is helpful and my math is right!

1A East
# Team Current Win Range Loss Range
10. Wm. Campbell 143 (170-177) (158-165)
11. Lancaster 139 (171-175) (154-158)
12. Charles City 139 (167-172) (152-157)
13. Surry 138 (175-182) (155-162)
14. Northampton 129 (155-162) (143-150)
15. West Point 125 (151-160) (136-145)

My thoughts:
15. West point needs to beat Charles City and have a ton of help to get in. A lot of unfavorable match ups for their rider points this week as two teams that could give them points (Northampton, Surry, and Lancaster) would push them out with wins and other games like K&Q vs KW, Essex vs Rapp. I think they finish with 138 and out of the top 12.
14. Northampton needs to win this week and needs WP to win their game against C.C. Even at that I think their best chance is a tie for 12 with Surry at 159(not sure how ties are broken). But will likely end up at 143 and out of the equation.
13. Surry with a loss this week needs help to get in. However if they win, they could blow up the bubble and jump as high as 9th. I think they finish at 159 and hope for a Lancaster or C. City loss.
12. Charles City- Win and you are in, lose and you are out, I think? I think that Surry will gain enough points in their loss to negate any chance in CC staying in. I think they have nothing to worry about, win, and finish at 167.
11. Lancaster- Another Win and you are in situation. I don't think they get there and finish at 156 and out. Their other hope is for everyone below them to lose and their rider points to sneak them in.
10. Campbell- would need it would take an absolute disaster for William Campbell to fall out of the top 12. but I think they have nothing to worry about, win their last game and finish at 173.

1A West
# Team Current Win Range Loss Range
15. Twin Springs 130 (149-153) (138-142)
16. Bland 123 (153-158) (136-141)
17. Auburn 118 (151-154) (134-137)
18. Honaker 115 (128-143) (125-130)
19. Thomas Walker 108 (137-140) (120-123)

19. Thomas Walker needs a win over JI Burton and a decent amount of help to get in, Honaker, Auburn, Bland Loss (which they may get all 3). But the win over JI Burton will prove too much, they finsish at 121.
18. Honaker- probably the most interesting scenario in the west. They have a shot against Ridgeview and with a win could climb up into the 16 spot with a loss by Bland and Auburn. I think they get it done against a Ridgeview team that is out and finish at 140 in the 16th spot.
17. Auburn- A win against Giles would get them in, but I can't find any record of them ever beating Giles. Even with a loss, they could squeeze in but would need a ton of help that they probably wont get. 134 and out.
16. Bland- The bears are sitting in right now and have a good shot at staying in. A win would put them in and a loss would have them right on the bubble. If they lose and Honaker also loses, they should be in. If Honaker wins and bland loses, Honaker is probably in. I think Bland finishes at 137 and sitting in 17th.
15. Twin Springs- A win over rye cove will lock them in, barring Bland knocking off the fort and Auburn beating Giles. I don't see that happening and see Twin Springs in at 15th at 149.

 

[Twobyfour]

Wp would need wins by teams to get points that if they won would be in anyways. Not possible for wp. Surry is already in when they walk on the field as is Wc. So its really only 1 spot left for either cc, lan, or nh

 

[HighestPoint]

Wp would need wins by teams to get points that if they won would be in anyways. Not possible for wp. Surry is already in when they walk on the field as is Wc. So its really only 1 spot left for either cc, lan, or nh

If Lancaster and Charles City win, Surry is out if they lose. So they arent in when they walk on the field. WC is more than likely in if they lose but CAN be out pointed by Lancaster, Charles City, and Surry if all 3 win. WP is out, you are right but mathematically can get it if all the right teams in front lose, they win, the teams in front miss the rider points that would get them in and K&Q and Rapp win. So are they going to get in, no. But it is still a mathematical possibility.

William Campbell, Lancaster, and Surry all control their own destiny, win and you are in, lose and you do need help. None of those teams are in automatically with a loss. Charles City needs a win plus one of the 3 to lose, NH needs a win and a decent amount of help.

 

[Twobyfour]

you are correct. I figured cc at 129 instead of 139